The Long View

(This piece was originally published in the January 2011 issues of Merchant Magazine and Building Products Digest.)

“In the long run, we’ll all be dead.” That unfortunate utterance from a now dead economist has provided a handy excuse for shortsighted business planners focused only on extracting the maximum profit from the here and now. That kind of thinking is responsible for many business failures, yes, but also many environmental problems more daunting even than the federal deficit. Failure to consider the future implications of decisions made today virtually guarantees a legacy of difficulty and hardship for the next generation.

Taking the long view, on the other hand, is at the heart of green thinking. Therefore, this January, I encourage you to forget about 2011’s top trends for a moment and invest some quality time considering the next decade and the opportunities and threats it will present to your business and community.

The best place to start is at the end – what will your business look like in 2020? Has it been passed down to your children? Acquired, shut down or thriving with you securely at the helm? Is it connected to the same old supply chain? Is the local economy vibrant and strong, or struggling along? Most importantly, what do you want your business to look like and what sort of realistic scenarios will lead you there? To answer these questions one must first consider the long term forces reshaping our industry.

The next decade will see plenty of change and probably as many surprises as the last. Obviously, “green building” is on its way to becoming the new normal, whether it’s LEED or another approach, creating new opportunities for growth. Transport fuel prices are trending higher with the very real possibility that periodic episodes of price volatility will devastate marginal businesses. Households, businesses and governments will continue to shift purchasing to less toxic and more eco-efficient products from socially responsible producers. Competition between “big box” chains and independent dealers will continue, with increasing activism from localization groups. The green DIY and urban agriculture movements will continue to take root across the country. And a host of global and domestic macroeconomic factors will attenuate or amplify these opportunities and threats.

But underlying whatever scenario one wants to envision for the next ten years, there is the inescapable reality that the global climate system is changing, most likely due to human activity. The last decade was the warmest on record, but more important to consider are the local and regional impacts. Damaging and costly extreme weather is becoming more common. NASA has published a slideshow depicting the number of temperature anomalies each decade going back to 1880, (earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/). The trend is unmistakable, which should be cause for concern, especially in the context of the massively destructive heat wave that hit Russia last summer.

Regional climate patterns are changing in ways that dealers and distributors should understand and anticipate. The US Global Change Research Program, (www.globalchange.gov), provides useful analysis for each region of the country. Depending on your location, expect more drought, more fires, more floods, more heat waves and cold snaps, and more precipitation when it comes. And when these “anomalies” occur, they will probably be at the wrong time, disrupting water supplies, agricultural harvests, supply chain logistics and more.

These broad trends suggest that merchandising and business model innovations will be required to sustain a successful business. Households, businesses and governments will be forced to invest in mitigation and adaptation strategies. Dealers will, too. But those long-term planners among them will be prepared to weather whatever the decade has in store, with solutions that will help their customers and communities, too.